Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, announced he would not seek re-election after a Supreme Court decision upheld the redline Republicans had drawn through his district, a decision emblematic of the tough calculus Democrats face in the Lone Star State amid a new slate of congressional districts.
Despite his personal loss, Doggett, 79, believes Democrats have a unique reason for optimism: he thinks Republicans have given themselves a vulnerability in their redistricting efforts by basing their rework on the results of the last election - and that in doing so they may have spread themselves too thin.
"My overall view is one of cautious optimism that people recognize that the midterm elections began this summer by Trump when he initiated the new redistricting," Doggett told Fox News Digital on Wednesday morning.
"I think there are several state House seats that have become competitive that may not have been competitive last time," he said.
TRUMP TURNS UP THE HEAT ON RED-STATE REPUBLICANS BLOCKING NEW CONGRESSIONAL MAPS
The Supreme Court's affirmation of the new maps cements new political realities in the Lone Star State designed to squeeze five Democrats out of office, and it puts to bed questions about the lawfulness of the change. Although Doggett's exit makes a Democratic victory in Texas' 37th Congressional District more unlikely and has forced other Democrats like Rep. Marc Veasy, D-Texas, into similar retirement decisions, questions remain about whether those advantages are short-term gains or if Republicans can reliably expect to benefit in years to come.
Matthew Green, professor of political science at the Catholic University of America, said the new political landscape - like all gerrymandering efforts - is an advantage that will change over time.
"Gerrymandering can have different effects in differing states over time, but in general, partisan gerrymanders tend to 'stack the deck' towards one party or another," Green said. "Texas is potentially unpredictable; Latinos are increasingly swing voters, so it's not clear what the results might be in 2026 and beyond."
Like Green, Doggett also pointed to the Latino vote as a particularly large wild card that Texas Republicans will likely have to reckon with. He believes Republican redistricting efforts have assumed that the Latino community in Texas will continue its right-leaning trend of the last election. Latinos make up roughly 40% of the population in Texas, according to data from the 2020 census.
"I see incredible engagement by people across ethnic and racial lines. But given the way the Republicans drew these districts, where they said they were basically packing Hispanics in some districts, I think that this could come back to create a problem for them," Doggett said.
In addition to shifting voting patterns among demographics, Doggett pointed out that Trump's messaging on immigration may not play as forcefully among voters as in 2024.
"They are fighting the last war, and we're fighting one now, where many people recognize that Trump's promises on affordability and the like are not working. And so I think the immigration issue is not the kind of hammer that he was able to use last time," Doggett said.
Republican strategists responding to those comments said those vulnerabilities exist everywhere.
"That's an interesting way to think about it," said a strategist familiar with the thinking of Republican candidates in Texas. "The same case could be made in California or any other state that's redistricting, right? Like in general, [the advantages] are temporary, no matter what the map is."
The source said Republicans - and Democrats in other states - are all attempting to push advantages they can find as the margin deciding the balance of power on Capitol Hill has continued to shrink in recent years.
"You know, the days of having a House majority by more than 10, those are in the rearview mirror. The map is always going to be small, no matter what the redistricting situation is. So redistricting might help people right now, but it's always a game of inches. So there's always going to be a small margin no matter which party holds the House," the strategist said.
RED STATE MOVES FORWARD ON TRUMP-BACKED PUSH FOR NEW CONGRESSIONAL MAP
Up until the Supreme Court's decision put the nail in the coffin, Doggett had been prepared to continue his public service.
It was initially unclear if the new maps passed by the Texas Legislature in August would remain in place. Doggett had already announced his intention to retire but put those plans on hold when a lower court froze the implementation of the new maps, citing concerns that the new maps had gerrymandered along the lines of race in its 160-page ruling. In its decision on the matter, the Supreme Court wrote that the lower court had unfairly read race-based motives into the legislature's deliberations.
"The District Court failed to honor the presumption of the legislative good faith by construing ambiguous direct and circumstantial evidence against the legislature," the Supreme Court said.
SCOTUS ALLOWS TEXAS TO USE TRUMP-PUSHED REDRAWN CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING MAP FAVORING REPUBLICANS
Doggett's departure robs Democrats of a storied incumbent with deep ties to the region. Any alternative candidate the party might put up would likely face a harder time against a Republican opponent.
Doggett, who was the first Democrat to call on President Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, last won re-election in 2024 with a 74.2%-23.6% victory over Republican candidate Jenny Garcia Sharon.
"I am most appreciative for the opportunity to have represented our community in public office for most of the last 50 years - appreciative for the support and encouragement of so many neighbors as well as people from McAllen to San Antonio, from San Marcos to La Grange," Doggett wrote in a press release announcing his retirement.
